Oil price

2022 - 3 - 7

Goldman hikes crude price forecast, Barclays and Rystad warn of ... (Reuters)

Goldman Sachs hiked its price forecasts for Brent oil saying the world could be facing one of "largest energy supply shocks ever" because of the Ukraine ...

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Kazakhstan Braces For Economic Fallout From War In Ukraine (OilPrice.com)

The ongoing war in Ukraine is threatening Kazakhstan crude oil exports which account for 14 percent of the country's GDP.

The more so since January 2021 when Ankara hiked its transit fee from $0.55 per barrel to between $1.50-$2.00 per barrel. Once full, flow will have to halt which in turn would force a cut in oil production at Kazakh fields. The Russian section is operated by CPC-R – a company headquartered in Moscow – while the pipeline itself is owned by a consortium in which Russian state firm Transneft holds 24 percent and subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft together hold another 20 percent. With the U.S. and EU discussing a ban on Russian oil imports, buyers are wary of being left with a tanker full of crude they would be unable to deliver. -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32

What is next for oil and gas prices? (unknown)

US President Joe Biden's ban on Russian energy imports is latest move to punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

“So one is sort of a bit more manageable… that production is essentially unbuyable in many ways, and if you do that in an already very tight market the demand [and prices] are going to go up,” he said. The most immediate effect will be on inflation. “The fear is that if we can’t get oil, where’s it going to come from?.. Because people decide, well, I can’t. It’s too expensive to drive. For Russia, this represented 3 percent of its total exports.

Russia warns oil price will hit $300 if West bans imports (unknown)

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow ...

"But European politicians with their statements and accusations against Russia push us towards that." We are ready for it. "If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead.

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Brace For High Oil Prices, Inflation, And An Economic Slowdown (OilPrice.com)

Fears of inflation and an economic slowdown are growing as global economies struggling to recover from the pandemic are forced to deal with soaring oil ...

Gundlach also said it was time to admit the U.S. was going into stagflation, and the latest increase in gas prices was only the beginning of the pain. The 50-percent jump in wheat prices since the start of the invasion is making wheat more unaffordable. Talks about oil sanctions marked the start of the week, and the market response was a sharper rise in oil prices. Giovanni Staunovo from UBS, for instance, forecast oil could stabilize around $125 per barrel unless the war drags on, in which case disruptions to global supply would persist, pushing oil to $150 per barrel. According to data about hedge fund buying activity in oil contracts, however, there are fears of a global economic slowdown, and while also unsurprising, this is most unwelcome. Oil prices soared as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine in what it euphemistically called a “special military operation” aimed at “demilitarizing” its eastern neighbor.

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Energy price shock eases slightly as Germany allays fears of ... (The Guardian)

Gas and oil hit record highs before stabilising as countries dependent on Russian imports say measures likely to be introduced 'step by step'

The nightmare scenario of stagflation – where inflation combines with stagnating growth – looms for the world economy. It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens.” The Bank of America chief economist Ethan Harris said cutting off most of Russia’s energy exports would be a “major shock to global markets”, and the loss of Russia’s 5m barrels could see oil prices double to $200 a barrel. Panic on trading floors sent safe havens sharply higher, with gold hitting as much as $2,000.86, its highest since mid-2020. “Europe has deliberately exempted energy supplies from Russia from sanctions,” he said. European benchmark gas prices jumped by 79% to as high as €345 per megawatt-hour, while Brent crude oil soared by more than 10% in early trading to $139 per barrel, a 14-year high and close to the all-time record of $147.50 set in July 2008.

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US bans Russian oil imports, oil price soars past $132 (News24)

US President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced a US ban on Russian oil and other energy imports, ramping up a pressure campaign on Moscow in retaliation for ...

Kwarteng said he was exploring options to end British imports of Russian gas which accounts for about 4% of supply in the country. Britain will also phase out Russian imports of oil and oil products by the end of 2022, business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said on Tuesday, calling on businesses to use the transition period to ensure a smooth transition. "This transition will give the market, businesses and supply chains more than enough time to replace Russian imports – which make up 8% of UK demand," Kwarteng said on Twitter.

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DAVID FICKLING: Global economy can ride out the oil price turmoil (Business Day)

To take the sting out of an oil shock, central bank officials need to just sit back and wait for the crude market to rebalance.

To take the sting out of an oil shock, officials need to just sit back and wait for the crude market to rebalance. A central bank with a fanatical inflation-fighting focus will take rising energy prices as a cue to raise interest rates, which will squeeze the economy in general as well, including a far more important part of the spending basket: housing costs. In the basket of goods from which the US consumer price index is constructed, it accounts for just 3.7%, rising to 5% for blue-collar workers. Both 2010 and 2011, when crude prices recovered from the slump of the 2008 financial crisis to hit the pace they maintained until midway through 2014, were two of the strongest years for growth since the mid-2000s. For the previous five years from the start of 2010, the price averaged $92 — or about $119 at the start of that period, after adjusting for inflation using the US consumer price index. It’s hardly surprising that when the price of Brent crude jumps 39% over the course of a month, people take fright.

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EU Plans A "Potentially Massive" Bond Sale To Finance Energy And ... (OilPrice.com)

The European Union is looking to issue “potentially massive” bond sales to finance and energy and defense fund.

It all started with Germany, which recently pledged to revamp the Bundeswehr, its military, by - among other things - bringing back the draft. The money will be used to help strengthen the bloc's energy and military infrastructure. The price tag could reach €70 billion ($76 billion) compared with €10 billion in previous years, according to a report by Belgian-based think tank Bruegel. But energy isn't the only issue. But as the EU transitions away from Russian gas, the real question is: what are the alternatives? "Tens of billions of euros will be needed to strengthen European defense, to not rely on the U.S. and to be self-sufficient in energies, to be independent of Russia," Slovakia’s finance minister, Igor Matovic, said on Tuesday. "Joint EU bonds are the way to go -- Slovakia will surely need a helping hand from richer European countries, we can’t do it ourselves."

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